Retrobikes of the future ?

[magicmistertea]

I like Scott scale. But what do i know about modern :roll:

yer im with you on this one... i love the scott scale series... a defo future classic !!

a good debate guys..... quite funny in places aswell

 

[utahdog2003]

I see where you are coming from and i agree to an extent. I used brands like FAT, YETi et al as a rough example. Talk to younger bike folk today and they don't know about Fat Chance bikes but they nod sagely when you mention Yeti. I suppose I was refering to the C-26 and its stellar value when I placed them either side of the line. Future value will be governed by the future generation- if that generation has little knowledge or desire for a brand it will fall in value and into obscurity- boutique or not.

That's good logic on your part then.

But...I don't see a C-26 as a Yeti production bike...that thing is proto heaven. Yeti Ultimate, ARC and FRO though?...same pot as Fat and Klein etc etc.

 

[SF Klein]

I see where you are coming from and i agree to an extent. I used brands like FAT, YETi et al as a rough example. Talk to younger bike folk today and they don't know about Fat Chance bikes but they nod sagely when you mention Yeti. I suppose I was refering to the C-26 and its stellar value when I placed them either side of the line. Future value will be governed by the future generation- if that generation has little knowledge or desire for a brand it will fall in value and into obscurity- boutique or not.

I do hope Fat values fall over time- that way I can afford to buy more and more

I agree w/ much of what you've posted and would add that you can point to the collectible automobile as a parallel for bikes. If a brand falls into obscurity, then there HAS to be something very unique about the product in order to garner interest among collectors. There were many, many car brands in the early 20's and 30's that came and went producing only a few examples, in some cases. The rarity of those various cars didn't guarantee their resale values. Similarly, take a look at Cadillac, whose products and brand became a joke throughout the 70's and 80's and is only now turning itself around. Yet, even as the brand was becoming a joke, V12 and V16 Cadillacs from the 20's / 30's and the V8 models of 50's / 60's saw resale values continue to climb long after the people who lived during the era had died off.

Mercedes Benz and Porsche are a different example where their products have always occupied the premium end of the segment. Their earlier products were both rare and differentiated (premium technology, materials, etc.) and their brands have always been aspirational. Nowadays, they crank out cars in much larger numbers and the resale values of their modern cars reflect that the laws of supply & demand are still in force - i.e. you can buy used examples for significant savings off their original prices, although even with significant depreciation, each of these brands is still a benchmark for resale value.

I think it's fair to point out that when something gains or loses in value, at some point you have to look at the actual currency involved. If you double a nickel, the value has increased 100% but it's still just 10 cents in total. When you have Kleins that sold for $3,000 15 years ago and they struggle to reach $800 to $1000 today, you could say - "well they've held 1/3 of their original value". But consider that there were plenty of bikes that sold for $150 brand new 15 years ago and some now sell for $50 - $75 if they're in good condition. So which was the better "investment"? Sure the Klein is worth $1,000 today vs. $75 of the department store bike but the Klein owner lost more money on both a percentage basis and an actual dollar basis. At least it's probable that the Klein owner enjoyed/enjoys his bike more than the owner of the department store bike.

I believe that to hazard a guess on where the collectible bike market will be in 20 years is really just that....a guess. If there isn't any interest in a particular brand, or product, then value & worth evaporate. Fat, Yeti, Klein, and others have active cult followings which preserves their worth today but will those followings still be as active 20 years from now? Will new members enter the following and develop the same appreciation as I have for Klein? Maybe, maybe not. Whether or not the Klein following evaporates with time, I still derive a large degree of happiness every time I look at them, ride them, and share stories about them so I feel I win either way. I've also made investments in the past (MCI Worldcom, Nortel Networks, AOL, to name just a few) where I saw my investment go to zero. Yet, I didn't get any enjoyment out of the stock certificates of those companies. :cry:

 

[utahdog2003]

I agree w/ much of what you've posted and would add that you can point to the collectible automobile as a parallel for bikes. If a brand falls into obscurity, then there HAS to be something very unique about the product in order to garner interest among collectors. There were many, many car brands in the early 20's and 30's that came and went producing only a few examples, in some cases. The rarity of those various cars didn't guarantee their resale values. Similarly, take a look at Cadillac, whose products and brand became a joke throughout the 70's and 80's and is only now turning itself around. Yet, even as the brand was becoming a joke, V12 and V16 Cadillacs from the 20's / 30's and the V8 models of 50's / 60's saw resale values continue to climb long after the people who lived during the era had died off.

Mercedes Benz and Porsche are a different example where their products have always occupied the premium end of the segment. Their earlier products were both rare and differentiated (premium technology, materials, etc.) and their brands have always been aspirational. Nowadays, they crank out cars in much larger numbers and the resale values of their modern cars reflect that the laws of supply & demand are still in force - i.e. you can buy used examples for significant savings off their original prices, although even with significant depreciation, each of these brands is still a benchmark for resale value.

I think it's fair to point out that when something gains or loses in value, at some point you have to look at the actual currency involved. If you double a nickel, the value has increased 100% but it's still just 10 cents in total. When you have Kleins that sold for $3,000 15 years ago and they struggle to reach $800 to $1000 today, you could say - "well they've held 1/3 of their original value". But consider that there were plenty of bikes that sold for $150 brand new 15 years ago and some now sell for $50 - $75 if they're in good condition. So which was the better "investment"? Sure the Klein is worth $1,000 today vs. $75 of the department store bike but the Klein owner lost more money on both a percentage basis and an actual dollar basis. At least it's probable that the Klein owner enjoyed/enjoys his bike more than the owner of the department store bike.

I believe that to hazard a guess on where the collectible bike market will be in 20 years is really just that....a guess. If there isn't any interest in a particular brand, or product, then value & worth evaporate. Fat, Yeti, Klein, and others have active cult followings which preserves their worth today but will those followings still be as active 20 years from now? Will new members enter the following and develop the same appreciation as I have for Klein? Maybe, maybe not. Whether or not the Klein following evaporates with time, I still derive a large degree of happiness every time I look at them, ride them, and share stories about them so I feel I win either way. I've also made investments in the past (MCI Worldcom, Nortel Networks, AOL, to name just a few) where I saw my investment go to zero. Yet, I didn't get any enjoyment out of the stock certificates of those companies. :cry:

There's another parallel to cars. I think modern cars are going to have less value to collectors over time because of the amount of degradeable plastics in a modern car. You won't see people rebuilding the current BMW M3 for example, because the thing is 80% plastic! a 2002tii on the other hand...a little paint and chrome and viola! New 2002tii!

Same for bikes. Most of the high zoot large brand carbon stuff I think will fall by the wayside when its realized over time for what it really is. Worthless plastic. :cry:

 

[SF Klein]

There's another parallel to cars. I think modern cars are going to have less value to collectors over time because of the amount of degradeable plastics in a modern car. You won't see people rebuilding the current BMW M3 for example, because the thing is 80% plastic! a 2002tii on the other hand...a little paint and chrome and viola! New 2002tii!

Same for bikes. Most of the high zoot large brand carbon stuff I think will fall by the wayside when its realized over time for what it really is. Worthless plastic. :cry:

I agree. With the exception of the Corvette, where the long term durability of fiberglass has been established, who's to say where the McLaren F1 or Pagani Zonda will be 50 years from now? I appreciate carbon fiber and all the benefits (lightness, stiffness, moldability, etc.) but since the material didn't even exist 30 years ago, it's hard to know for sure if you'd be able to take it out for a Sunday ride 20 years from now the same way you'd take a metal framed bike out. The carbon industry and the bike mfg's who use CF haven't spent any time publicizing the long term durability of CF which doesn't do anything to reassure me that the material, and the resins, can remain as durable over a long period of time. I'm not technical enough however to compare contrast CF vs. fiberglass vs. thermoplastic vs. poly-carbonate.

 

[Dr S]

It's the complex electronics that will be the failing of modern cars. Manufacturers only continue stocking parts for 3-4 after a model is dropped and these complex electronics only last so long. UK junkyards are full of good cars that have become unecconomic to repair due to the failure of an electrical componant. Casting a crank case for a 1940's Alfa Romeo is a pretty simple job but repairing the cars of the future is going to be difficult indeed.

 

[SF Klein]

That might be true for some makes but I know Porsche stocks parts for 10 years after it drops a model. The good news with them too, is that there are many parts that are interchangeable so you can usually find a part long after that 10 years. For example, the outer doors of the 911 were in continuous production for 35 years until the 996 came out meaning that a door from either the 911, 964 or 993, will fit one another.

 

[The Vicar]

as an impoverished vicar driving a 5 year old hyundai getz the way this thread has gone into classic cars is a bit beyond me

but back to on one-they are cheap so i dont expect the frame to feel like my chas roberts genesis-my problem is i cant seem to get the geometry to work for me-maybe i am just the wrong shape myself-short legs and a bad back -but the clockwork klein and chas all fit ok with a little adjustment on stem/handlebar/saddle etc but cant get it right with the on one

 

[D_XZ]

I dunno..in the last decade particular model bikes haven't seemed to have stuck around long enough to become iconic as bikes seem have developed at a higher rate than in the 90's from year to year - even those models that last a while tend to change from year to year.

My modern full sus bike had the rear swingarm design changed, swingarm material changed, shock and tubeset changed, tubeset modified, shock and swingarm material changed all in consecutive years before being run alongside both a long travel and a full carbon version of itself and then finally phased out last year. Iy my bike were to become regarded as a classic, exactly which version would we talking about?

How much of this constant development is truly beneficial to riders as opposed to marketeers is one question, but mtb's have genuinely changed at a fast rate and we've seen lots of 1 or 2 year developments that fizzle out.

Most 'desirable' bikes of today are also full suss bikes which will be harder to keep in good condition than a hardtail in the long term and be much more difficult to obtain those one off seal and pivot parts which naturally wear.

Finally most retrobikes are pretty much do-it-all bikes of the time while modern bikes are often very purpose specific. Should the 4x fad fade then who would want a 4x bike with no 4x tracks? How many dual slalom bikes do we see on bike of the month?

 

[andrewl]

Example- in the early-mid 90's I sold loads of MGBs for silly money to 30somethings who lusted for them as kids. Now you can't give them away and the new 30somethings want a mint Golf GTi, Audi Quattro or Integrale instead.

The MGB was never a good car and I'm sure those 30somethings who lusted after one soon discovered this once they took a drive.

The others mentioned are at least nice to drive

Anyway off the cars and back onto the bikes.

Obviously I have some bias as I own lots of Turners but I think you'll find that the 2000 - 2005 HL Turner frames will definitely be considered a future classic. The 03 - 05 5 Spots won that many "Ultimate Bike" tests around the globe that you could consider them future classics on that alone.