Ukraine and the wisdom of the RB crowd
- Thread starter M-Power
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Why do they need a bailout?
They aren't part of the EU so i suggest we keep our distance for once :roll:
They aren't part of the EU so i suggest we keep our distance for once :roll:
highlandsflyer
Retro Wizard
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Hot topic indeed right now. With Turkey AND the Ukraine, Europe will certainly be well placed for future trade. Lovely people they are too.
its another country that has suffered from moving borders, Lvov used to be in Poland for example.
the issue is more than there are a large group of "ethnic" russians in the eastern half which was heavily involved with industry and oil and gas (hence the gas pipeline from Yamal peninsula headed south to link up before heading to europe). Ukraine also has a vocal ultra nationalist movement and naturally makes the "Russian" Ukrainians nervous. In most places it might be considered racist but because the minority are the Russians (and the bad guys) it makes it ok ??
I was there in 1997, couple hours drive north of Donetsk, lot of Russian speakers, often feeling "lost" even then. Their parents or grandparents had moved there back in the good old CCCP days, they were ethnic russians but had never lived anywhere else than Ukraine. Partition was debated even then.
Not dissimilar to the Baltics back in 1990s where the "almost minority" passed various "anti-russian" laws almost to punish those with links to the former occupying power, things like not getting a vote unless pass a nationality test that had to be taken in Estonian for example.
the issue is more than there are a large group of "ethnic" russians in the eastern half which was heavily involved with industry and oil and gas (hence the gas pipeline from Yamal peninsula headed south to link up before heading to europe). Ukraine also has a vocal ultra nationalist movement and naturally makes the "Russian" Ukrainians nervous. In most places it might be considered racist but because the minority are the Russians (and the bad guys) it makes it ok ??
I was there in 1997, couple hours drive north of Donetsk, lot of Russian speakers, often feeling "lost" even then. Their parents or grandparents had moved there back in the good old CCCP days, they were ethnic russians but had never lived anywhere else than Ukraine. Partition was debated even then.
Not dissimilar to the Baltics back in 1990s where the "almost minority" passed various "anti-russian" laws almost to punish those with links to the former occupying power, things like not getting a vote unless pass a nationality test that had to be taken in Estonian for example.
M-Power
Old School Grand Master
daugs":37745ig2 said:
Very interesting insight, thanks for sharing. Depending on how things pan out and there are an incredible number of variables and scenarios. I think this more than most could have a significant affect on the EU, with more volatile National collapse to follow in the region. Maybe it could halt economic recovery, increase energy prices, as Russian discounts may be withdrawn etc etc
In general the situation in Ukraine can be depicted very easy. You have the east and you have the west. The east speaks Russian, a lot of people think Soviet. The west speaks Ukrainian, thinks Ukrainian and feels very European. Both hardly ever agree. In the middle is a band of regions which are a bit unclear and unsure. Kiev is one of them. Since neither the western nor the eastern part have a majority, it's in fact these swingregins which decide where Ukraine is heading. To see how the situation is developing I only have to check the social media postings of some of my friends who live in this central area. When they joined the western oposition forces I knew that the majority was shifting.
The big interest of the EU in Ukraine is not for the sake of Ukraine. It's for the sake of western industryl. Ukraine is a country with a large and skilled industrial workforce. With the rising wages in Asia and the rising energy costs (and also the rising risk of sea transport via the Suez Channell) it's very interesting to relocate factories from Asia to Ukraine. Especially factories producing products where short transport links are needed.
For Russia the interest in Ukraine is mainly psychological. Ukraine and Belarus were together with Russia the core regions of the Soviet Union. The Baltics, Southern Caucasus and Central Asia were even in Soviet days seen as fairly foreign area's, not really Soviet. But Russia, Belarus and Ukraine were the core part, state and party structures depended on them, there was hardly a position of influence not taken by ethnic Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians. So for Russia it's mainly a matter of national psychology.
The big interest of the EU in Ukraine is not for the sake of Ukraine. It's for the sake of western industryl. Ukraine is a country with a large and skilled industrial workforce. With the rising wages in Asia and the rising energy costs (and also the rising risk of sea transport via the Suez Channell) it's very interesting to relocate factories from Asia to Ukraine. Especially factories producing products where short transport links are needed.
For Russia the interest in Ukraine is mainly psychological. Ukraine and Belarus were together with Russia the core regions of the Soviet Union. The Baltics, Southern Caucasus and Central Asia were even in Soviet days seen as fairly foreign area's, not really Soviet. But Russia, Belarus and Ukraine were the core part, state and party structures depended on them, there was hardly a position of influence not taken by ethnic Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians. So for Russia it's mainly a matter of national psychology.
Ivo":2cn2iee3 said:
I think there is a bit more to it than that, and a while since I looked at but Gazprom used to supply 1/3 of the natural gas consumed by Western Europe, its why the German banks financed part of the pipeline in the 1980s that ran from Urengoy down to Ukraine and then west. The gas sales amounted to 50% of the foreign currency income for Russia. That revenue was almost entirely dependent on transport across Ukraine (older pipeline also runs through Belarus) and when USSR fell apart there were considerable arguments about who owned the pipeline, transit fees etc etc along with former soviet debt, nuclear arsenal, black sea fleet etc etc. The Russians then set about building a more northern route through Belarus and Poland completed about 10 years ago I think, each pipeline has a capacity of about a trillion cubic feet, so was still very dependent on the Ukrainian transit. Not sure where the latest pipelines got to but may be still relevant ?
map from wikipedia, not sure on date
ps Nadym on the map is not far from a town, Novy Urengoy, that I was lucky enough to visit back in November 1994.
M-Power
Old School Grand Master
Excellent informative posts Ivo and Daugs. It will be interesting to see how Putin reacts. The world order is changing so rapidly by all these variables.
What is the attraction of Soviet style Communism to the Eastern Ukranians ? Surely it's more than a common language and ethnicity ? Altruism in its numerous forms always fascinates me tbh.
What is the attraction of Soviet style Communism to the Eastern Ukranians ? Surely it's more than a common language and ethnicity ? Altruism in its numerous forms always fascinates me tbh.
velomaniac
MacRetro Rider
There was a line from the Film 'Enemy at the Gate' on Film 4 last night about the seige of Stalingrad. One Russian was musing why the Germans kept sending foot soldiers to their certain death but then he said it must be like our relationship with the Ukranians, implying that they're not important or valued. An attitude like that between the Russians and Ukranians could be part of the problem, deep seated and historical.
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