Tariffs and the upcoming trade war's effect on retro bike market

[PanoIgano]

Hi guys,

Just to make sure everyone is aware, this is not meant to be political discussion on weather tariffs are right or wrong as anyhow such discussions are not allowed (and rightly so I would add) in this forum.

With this in mind, I was wondering what could the potential effects of such measures (and the counter measures receiving countries will soon unleash) would be to an already ailing retrob bike market. More specifically, for retro bike enthusiasts in Europe.

Sure, for one, if recession kicks in, members here and in other forums will start cutting back on their projects and allocating their income to more pressing priorities. But then the market has already been in a downward spiral for a while now.

Would this be the final blow to it? Or will it end up boosting the retro bike market a bit now that aluminium and steel tariffs will drive up the cost of new bikes?

Just wandering what the effects of all this would be to the extend we can anticipate.

PS to mods: If you think this is too risky of a post that you would want to delete to avoid future headaches I would understand. From my part, I would keep a tab on comments to make sure we keep with the forum's disussion rules.

 

[hamster]

US consumers are going to have less money to spend and stuff like new bikes will cost more. I think you can spin that both ways, either that they will refurbish old bikes or alternatively they spend less on hobbies. It's hard to tell at this time.

 

[Raumer]

Whenever money gets tight hobbies and other optional expenditure tend to be the first thing that is cut/sold. But if interest rates go towards zero you tend to have people invest money in hobbies as you might as well have an item (car/bike/etc...) not earning money as you are to have money in the bank earning nothing.

Sadly my crystal ball is broken, I tend to buy when the market is high and decide to sell when it is low!

 

[FluffyChicken]

So did anything hit private second hand sales (main retro bike stuff) at the borders...?

But the new products to keep stuff going, SRPs bits and bobs etc on any counter tariffs either way? What are they classed as for trade tariffs?

USA have to pay another 10% on anything we send to them, and 20% if they buy from our friends over the water in the EU community.

And vice versa if we/they bump em up too

 

[PhillB]

I think in the short term it will make all new bikes everywhere more expensive, unless they are built from raw materials sourced from within the same country. In the longer term, it is harder to say, as the objective for the Tariffs is ultimately to revive the US industrial infrastructure. It may, in time lead to a revival in the US and elsewhere of home-built products. If these tariffs stick around, then it will lead other countries to potentially revive their manufacturing industries too. The challenge with this is manufacturing sectors and the required supply chain dynamics cannot be set up over-night and indeed would be a struggle even within a single term of office for any limited term government. So, it is likely that a 'wait and see' approach will be taken in the short term.

In many ways, tariffs for retro bikes already exist - VAT and existing import tariffs, combined with postage often come to significantly more than the value of the object when looking to import a bike frame from the US to the UK for example.

How cool would it be to see a resurgence of the small, local bike builder environment that existed in many countries in the 1950's!! I don't think it is very likely though!

 

[Tsundere]

Personally I think the retro boom from 5 years ago was an anomaly. A conflagration of separate events conspired to create it.

90s MTB has long been a meme in the online cycling world due to things we all know - their availability, functionality, practicality, versatility and cost effectiveness. So when a bunch of Gen Xers with disposable income were forced into furlough during the one summer where we had endless sunshine, the internet and nostalgia did the rest.

I can't see that bubble coming back as people are back to work and the global economy is about to collapse.

 

[bikeworkshop]

Tarriffs will make things more expensive at least in the short term.
This is recessionary.

Cycle retail (But not the whole trade) performs ok in a recession (been there twice), because cycling is cheaper than both driving and gym membership.

I think functional retro stuff will rise in value whereas esoteric stuff will probably decline - oddly the opposite of the immediate post-Covid times.

 

[Lhatch4]

This is a fascinating subject. I was just reading the wikipedia page for Scott Bessent, the new Secretary of the Treasury, before seeing this post. What I can say for sure is that the changes in global markets will certainly create new investment opportunities. I'm looking forward to seeing how this all shakes out. As far as the retrobike community, it all depends on where you source parts. New parts for 26" bikes coming from Asia will become more expensive. Shipping costs are already too high for American's to buy used parts from Europe. I don't think that will really be affected. Our hobby probably won't really change very much. My wife and I will be (hopefully) visiting the London Business School in either October or November. It will be interesting to see all of this in hind sight.

 

[hamster]

I think in the short term it will make all new bikes everywhere more expensive, unless they are built from raw materials sourced from within the same country.

I disagree - all those brands and vendors hoping to sell in the US will see other regions (and especially Europe) as more attractive markets. We can expect more competitive intensity and thus lower prices...in Europe, for new kit.

Obviously this is totally different for our US pals, who are going to see new kit becoming MUCH more expensive. The bike industry relocated significantly to Vietnam in recent years, now with 40% tariffs that's a bust. But the EU has a free trade agreement with Vietnam.

What that means for old stuff like we all enjoy, I have no idea.

 

[Lucidone]

I disagree - all those brands and vendors hoping to sell in the US will see other regions (and especially Europe) as more attractive markets. We can expect more competitive intensity and thus lower prices...in Europe, for new kit.

Obviously this is totally different for our US pals, who are going to see new kit becoming MUCH more expensive. The bike industry relocated significantly to Vietnam in recent years, now with 40% tariffs that's a bust. But the EU has a free trade agreement with Vietnam.

What that means for old stuff like we all enjoy, I have no idea.

Beat me to it me to the point but undoubtedly better expressed by you!