State of the industry: a running thread

[Takingabreak]

You've answered your own question in the penultimate sentence, plus all the other factors already mentioned across this thread.

As for wheel size, it'll be 36” or 29+ next.

Yes maybe I have answered my own question. Covid times, the best road cycling I've ever experienced (albeit locally), quiet, traffic free roads... Now I have a zwift subscription and too many unused bikes littering my garage. Wheel size, I did see a 36er at a bike show about 10 years ago, it looked crazy, surely that can't be the next big thing, I mean how will young teenagers climb aboard?

 

[CassidyAce]

@CassidyAce this echoes exactly what i said to a bike rep the other day, entry level to mid range is where most people have no money, high end customers still have money as the cost of living issue isn't a problem for the wealthy, but the slightly annoying thing for me (not that this affects me either way) is that the bike companies are massively discounting across the range, and i find this a bit annoying, not because i'm in the trade and having to do deals etc, it's more that i see it as unfair, someone who has little spare money can't afford a £800 discounted to £550 or whatever but a rich guy who can afford his shiny new all singing all dancing £7000 beast is also seeing massive discounts, and it irks me that he is benefitting from the situation while the guy who might need a bike for work because he can't afford the repair on his car still can't afford a bike . . . it just sucks.

Interesting. Why do you think they're discounting the more expensive stuff then? Is it just a case of too much stock and they'll decrease production of next year's high end models to match lower demand in due course—in other words, a delay in responding to changed market conditions?

 

[jonnyboy666]

@CassidyAce simple, they make more of the cheaper or mid range stuff but when you're trying to put money in the bank you discount across the board, they need money asap.

 

[Titiritero]

I wonder if prices are just too high for people now. A quick look on a Kona uk site shows a mid? range deore spec Sutra priced at £1500, a road bike starting at £3800 and hybrid ebikes starting at an rrp of about £2k. How can an electric scooter cost a few hundred pounds but an ebike be a couple of thousand?

I really like the Kona Unit, but £1400 for a rigid bike, with Deore and average steel frame is a bit of a joke

 

[FluffyChicken]

I really like the Kona Unit, but £1400 for a rigid bike, with Deore and average steel frame is a bit of a joke

Would it have been worth £700-£750 back in 1993?

I don't think so, you'd get an average steel frame, Cindy, LX level stuff, Kona's usual skimping of hidden parts, would have been less iirc. By quite a bit.

 

[al-onestare]

Would it have been worth £700-£750 back in 1993?

I don't think so, you'd get an average steel frame, Cindy, LX level stuff, Kona's usual skimping of hidden parts, would have been less iirc. By quite a bit.

Yep, this. By today's standards, £1.4k is "reasonable".

 

[greencat]

@CassidyAce this echoes exactly what i said to a bike rep the other day, entry level to mid range is where most people have no money, high end customers still have money as the cost of living issue isn't a problem for the wealthy, but the slightly annoying thing for me (not that this affects me either way) is that the bike companies are massively discounting across the range, and i find this a bit annoying, not because i'm in the trade and having to do deals etc, it's more that i see it as unfair, someone who has little spare money can't afford a £800 discounted to £550 or whatever but a rich guy who can afford his shiny new all singing all dancing £7000 beast is also seeing massive discounts, and it irks me that he is benefitting from the situation while the guy who might need a bike for work because he can't afford the repair on his car still can't afford a bike . . . it just sucks.

I've seen plenty of evidence of those are higher salaries eg £100K+ are also struggling - especially if they have kids. Some of their running costs are horrific, and many have no kind of buffer. I guess that would fit the likely age bracket of who will be buying the high end bikes ie 40s/50s at peak of earning capacity. I think it is also opening those up who are somewhat in the middle ie don't have £7-10K to spend on an ebike - but will spend £2-4K on one (especially if they can get it on cycle scheme).

Sounds ridiculous to those of us on lower incomes, of course. Perhaps encouragingly for those on lower budgets, I'm seeming some previously £400-500 bikes coming in around the £200 mark from the likes of Evans etc. Even this is likely to be too high if money is really tight though.

As I've said before, there is something wonky with the entire system. Bikes & their parts/accessories prices have seemed too high when compared to other transport goods eg electric scooters, cars and motorbikes. But people like yourself can't make a decent living, and everyone else in the chain from manufacturer to distributor seems to be struggling. It's ripe for disruption - perhaps more modularisation, standardisation and someone (Chinese?) coming in with huge scale. It would be interesting to consider what a comfortable/safe/reliable commuter/leisure bike would look like if any part could be replaced and set up in under 2 mins, and with a cost of part being less than £15 quid - making any repair no more than about £20-£25. Maybe the entire bike would be £100-£200 - and parts swappable between any other bike of the same kind for years, if not decades (not dissimilar to we perhaps had for a time in the past?). Or maybe there's a subscription model of a bike which is fully maintained for £10-20 a month.

At the moment, the industry feels like it's sitting in a uncomfortable halfway house between boutique and truly mass market. It might need a big rethink about the proliferation and rapid evolution of standards in particular as a means of growing revenue.

 

[jonnyboy666]

@greencat (please take this as a reply not a have a go at you thing)

you say about people on £100,000 a year struggling, i'm not saying it's not affecting them but as an example i have the Exxon refinery a stones throw from me, those guys are on big money, i know some of them for years have lived beyond their means, i mean there are Aston Martins in the car park from time to time, but only in the summer of course at which point they get out their winter car, you know the old Merc AMG etc. they come in my shop and plead poverty, honestly it drives me mad, yes they have bills like the rest of us but they have the ability to get rid of a car or 2. one guy plead poverty a while ago when i knew that in the last 4 weeks he had bought nearly £4000 of retro bikes because he'd seen one of mine and he thought it was cool, he's not interested in them, it was pretty much a one-upman thing, so i don't feel particularly sorry for someone earning that sort of money if the bills are brought on by their own stupidity with money, because if you have been earning that sort money for say 10 years then frankly you should be in a good state regardless of recessions etc and if you aren't then you had a few too many holidays, a new car too often etc and haven't put enough away for the emergencies and rainy days

it might sound like i'm being harsh and unsympathetic but those people can only blame themselves, regardless of how many kids they've had. that is not a cost of living problem, that is a cost of stupidity problem, and they can get out of the problem a lot quicker and easier as next month they have £10,000 coming in, maybe £12,000 if they pic a few extra shifts etc, and if they get rid of a car or 2 and have a couple of holidays less a year then crisis over for them. the average low earner can't do that, extra shift at McDonalds doesn't solve their debt/bills issue . . . it's not the same for those earners, the low earners are facing homelessness.

 

[Guinessisgoodforyou]

@greencat (please take this as a reply not a have a go at you thing)

you say about people on £100,000 a year struggling, i'm not saying it's not affecting them but as an example i have the Exxon refinery a stones throw from me, those guys are on big money, i know some of them for years have lived beyond their means, i mean there are Aston Martins in the car park from time to time, but only in the summer of course at which point they get out their winter car, you know the old Merc AMG etc. they come in my shop and plead poverty, honestly it drives me mad, yes they have bills like the rest of us but they have the ability to get rid of a car or 2. one guy plead poverty a while ago when i knew that in the last 4 weeks he had bought nearly £4000 of retro bikes because he'd seen one of mine and he thought it was cool, he's not interested in them, it was pretty much a one-upman thing, so i don't feel particularly sorry for someone earning that sort of money if the bills are brought on by their own stupidity with money, because if you have been earning that sort money for say 10 years then frankly you should be in a good state regardless of recessions etc and if you aren't then you had a few too many holidays, a new car too often etc and haven't put enough away for the emergencies and rainy days

it might sound like i'm being harsh and unsympathetic but those people can only blame themselves, regardless of how many kids they've had. that is not a cost of living problem, that is a cost of stupidity problem, and they can get out of the problem a lot quicker and easier as next month they have £10,000 coming in, maybe £12,000 if they pic a few extra shifts etc, and if they get rid of a car or 2 and have a couple of holidays less a year then crisis over for them. the average low earner can't do that, extra shift at McDonalds doesn't solve their debt/bills issue . . . it's not the same for those earners, the low earners are facing homelessness.

Well said.

 

[greencat]

@greencat (please take this as a reply not a have a go at you thing)

you say about people on £100,000 a year struggling, i'm not saying it's not affecting them but as an example i have the Exxon refinery a stones throw from me, those guys are on big money, i know some of them for years have lived beyond their means, i mean there are Aston Martins in the car park from time to time, but only in the summer of course at which point they get out their winter car, you know the old Merc AMG etc. they come in my shop and plead poverty, honestly it drives me mad, yes they have bills like the rest of us but they have the ability to get rid of a car or 2. one guy plead poverty a while ago when i knew that in the last 4 weeks he had bought nearly £4000 of retro bikes because he'd seen one of mine and he thought it was cool, he's not interested in them, it was pretty much a one-upman thing, so i don't feel particularly sorry for someone earning that sort of money if the bills are brought on by their own stupidity with money, because if you have been earning that sort money for say 10 years then frankly you should be in a good state regardless of recessions etc and if you aren't then you had a few too many holidays, a new car too often etc and haven't put enough away for the emergencies and rainy days

it might sound like i'm being harsh and unsympathetic but those people can only blame themselves, regardless of how many kids they've had. that is not a cost of living problem, that is a cost of stupidity problem, and they can get out of the problem a lot quicker and easier as next month they have £10,000 coming in, maybe £12,000 if they pic a few extra shifts etc, and if they get rid of a car or 2 and have a couple of holidays less a year then crisis over for them. the average low earner can't do that, extra shift at McDonalds doesn't solve their debt/bills issue . . . it's not the same for those earners, the low earners are facing homelessness.

No offence taken. In my career, I've been at both ends of those spectrums earningswise (and mostly somewhere in the middle to low end of it). Perhaps because of that, and a poverty level upbringing - I never suffered from lifestyle inflation (if you read my other posts, I've never had a car...the economy would basically be third world if it relied on my expenditure). The good times allowed me to save and help cushion the bad times. But it also means I can appreciate a range of perspectives.

Yes, higher income peeps have more fat to cut. No-one is denying that. But those cuts are not necessarily easy - especially if some of the expensive toys were not bought outright and they are carrying high amounts of debts and interest payments. Selling the expensive car for less than they paid for it crystallises the loss, and perhaps only temporarily relieves a cash flow problem if they are still paying it off. Yes, they should have prepared better, but I think I've read evidence that around half of the population spends up to the hilt regardless of their income and there might be an evolutionary reason for that (basically from an evolutionary perspective, in most years it makes sense to blow everything in as it shows you are a better fit for reproduction etc. But savers exist because every so often when there's a famine etc, they do better).

It also means that there are likely few high earners who are feeling flush - and hence they aren't buying high end bikes in the volumes they were previously, and therefore the price cuts at that end of the market. I can't see how it can be any other way, otherwise prices at that end of the market would remain firm.