Peak Cheapness?

[d8mok]

If you were the only one bidding and you paid the start price, you were the only one that wanted the bike at that price, you over paid.

Many cars do, most don’t. All prices fluctuate.

I’ve seen your car threads, Audi r8 etc, not exactly run of the mill.

So hypothetically if I pay £50 for a bike on eBay ….. and then sell that same bike for £500 the next day … I’ve overpaid ?


You can’t assume that because nobody has bid that the value is the bid which it finished at. So many factors go into it , inc how accurate the listing is and how much spare cash buyers have at that time.

I run normal cars for me and wife daily which are Ford mainly. Purchased new with hefty discounts.

 

[Russell]

Hypothetically is doing some pretty heavy lifting there.

Well done on having the means and ability to purchase a new car in such a way as to be able to profit when you sell

Rare and unusual exceptions, as per my first post.

 

[d8mok]

Hypothetically is doing some pretty heavy lifting there.

Well done on having the means and ability to purchase a new car in such a way as to be able to profit when you sell

Rare and unusual exceptions, as per my first post.

Hypothetically might be used to protect the innocent…… or guilty

It’s really not uncommon to buy absolute bargains on eBay that nobody buys that are worth far more than the start bid. Not just bicycles.

People often assume that high level retro bike builds have been built with a blank chequebook when in fact it’s totally the opposite for many.

 

[Woz]

If a price seems fine for you buy it. If resale is the reason you are buying, perhaps you could find a more profitable enterprise. A lot of things are cheap enough to suck it and see.

Don't get me wrong. Our hobby is cheap. In good times everyone enjoyed a strip and flip to help pay for the hobby.

Today, strip and flip is - I think - a risky and time consuming affair. I personally have stopped because the velocity of moving things is lost.

Remember, no business is always better than bad business.

Shimano financials:
https://www.shimano.com/en/ir/finance-highlights.html

Good cash flow to stay a float, but more rationalisation and dumping even more new tat on the market is the future. People buying new is at pre-Covid at best. The sales are not happening.

Why would our second hand outdated tat be appealing in this scenario? The answer is unless you have an eagle eye for very very strong protentional give up in this flooded shrunk market. 70€ buys a solid bike with new tyres and cables at my local bike charity. That 70€ will not budge for a long-time regardless of what happens in the middle east, and I am convinced of that.

 

[fennec]

If i can find an ibis bow-ti for under $3000 USD ill consider the retro bike market to be in a slump. Until then, ehh?
Idk, it seems like the really common stuff is effectively worthless, and you can snag at least interesting mid tier models from all eras for next to nothing if you know what youre looking for. But the super rare and really desirable stuff is still very expensive. Which i guess it always will be, the bow ti is an extreme example but basically anything titanium is pretty nuts, not to mention more iconic parts and brands which just retain a lot of value.

 

[Woz]

Nailed it @fennec - if you buy today you've got to know and know it keeps value.

Otherwise, today it's all for the pub bike, commuter, station bike because it will not sell.

Bicycles are in the fashion industry. Fashion changes, prices of vintage goes up and down depending on what @Russell said earlier.

 

[d8mok]

If i can find an ibis bow-ti for under $3000 USD ill consider the retro bike market to be in a slump. Until then, ehh?
Idk, it seems like the really common stuff is effectively worthless, and you can snag at least interesting mid tier models from all eras for next to nothing if you know what youre looking for. But the super rare and really desirable stuff is still very expensive. Which i guess it always will be, the bow ti is an extreme example but basically anything titanium is pretty nuts, not to mention more iconic parts and brands which just retain a lot of value.

This is similar to what I’ve been saying for a while now.

Low and mid level stuff isn’t worth buying unless dirt cheap.

High end is still worth fortunes in the correct market but they do come up if you look hard enough.

 

[Woz]

Concretely, from years of strip and flip, I'm at the point I wouldn't even bother buying a 75€ XT M739 equipped bike.

By the time and cost of getting it in the man cave, inspecting it all, cleaning it all, presenting it all, dealing with dickheads, the pleasure and financial incentive is now lost.

Dealing with French bikes (where I am home and are abundance) I would never pick anything up more than what the weird ass 3 or 4 speed freewheel is worth. It is that sad to keep level headed today for dealing with that kind of stuff.

The only thing I think that actually maintains some flow of goods is disparity between rural areas and urban areas and the notion of "click to buy" and be gratified instantantly but even that is laced with complications when considering values.

A few days ago (in France) I dumped a massive 1952 made ceramic sink at the tip. Made in England. In excellent condition with no chips. Here in a deep rural I can't even offload for a cow to eat from it. The guys at the tip to help me offload it said the same, in a swanky city it would be in a bathroom costing a lot for a unique vintage item to show off. Proper country house renovation a la TV vibe to it. A UK house renovation program would make 15mins of broadcast time on such a thing. A trendy influencer on the boobtube raves about such things, but they haven't been arsed to get a driving license and certainly can't be arsed to collect such things. The new generation I think wants it delivered on the door stop and be able to return it if they are not "happy" with it.

When we are talking about bikes, especially older bikes, as private sellers I think we are up against it to appeal to a new crowd. The hassle and price of posting big bulky items I think weighs on the decision too that effects our market.

 

[d8mok]

I’d deffo buy a M739 spec bike still. It still sells really easily but anything less doesn’t.

I’ve found that selling Lx bits locally for £10 works well if you just want rid of it. Doesn’t make sense when time / fuel is factored in though but means you shift it.

I’m definitely more picky about what I buy now though. I stopped myself driving 2 hours today to buy a cheap bike as I only wanted the Seatpost where before I wouldn’t have thought twice as rest of bike would have sold easily for the price.

 

[greencat]

Yeah, I'm not sure prices of extremely rare stuff is indicative of the rest of the market. I daresay some Elvis stuff still sells for big bucks, but most of the rest of it goes for peanuts. The natural collectors of retro bikes are aged roughly 50+ - and either have what they want and/or looking to get rid. Plus everyone else who bought a bike - retro or otherwise during covid is looking to get rid. A retrobike looks even less appealing to most outside of afficinados