bm0p700f":2v4sj97h said:
What is unsustainable though is not taking in the numbers we do. Our population is aging. What the leave camp have not said is how by say 2050 if migration is reduced to the 10,000's how pensions e.t.c will be paid for. With a aging population either the concept of retirement will give or we need a bigger working age population. Since we are not having enough children there is only one way to bring the dependency ratio down.
no point in burying our collective head in the sand. whether migration is reduced or not big social changes are coming the thing is which change do we prefer. I would like the NHS and state pension to exist for me in 30 years time (I am 40 and expect to work till I am around 70).
You're right, the demographic time bomb is certainly real and should be planned for.
But the time bomb exists because government pension schemes are essentially a giant
Ponzi scheme: there is no pension 'pot' and there is no fund growth. Today's contributions are simply being handed over to today's pensioners. And as you say, when the number of contributors is less than the number of recipients, the game is up.
However, simply importing more people doesn't correct this flaw; if anything, it makes it worse because what happens when those extra migrant workers retire? What do we do then? Import yet more people to cover their pensions? At what point to we admit that simply importing more and more people has reached its limit?
bm0p700f":2v4sj97h said:
Germany took in 1m refugees last year not because they are feeling generous but because there population is aging and falling! They saw an opportunity to reverse that trend and avoid a demographic time bomb. Merkel has balls to plan for the future.
Well, maybe it's best not to count those chickens before they've hatched...
Fewer than 500 of 163,000 migrants find jobs in Sweden
Leak: 81 per cent of migrants to Germany are unskilled, government predicts 400,000 new welfare claimants
65 per cent of Syrian refugees can't even read or write, claims German academic
Migrant crisis: Two thirds of arrivals are 'basically illiterate'
"In expressing his concern, President Lenzen is affirming the statement in December of Munich University professor Ludger Woessmann, who said:
“We have to prepare ourselves for the fact that the majority of young refugees will fail a three-year full time training course with a high proportion of theoretic content. According to the Chamber of Commerce of Munich and Upper Bavaria, 70 per cent of trainees from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq who started lessons more than two years ago have already dropped out”.
Referring to a 2011 educational study conducted in Syria, the professor said 65 per cent of 18 year-olds in the country lacked “basic skills” and were therefore “functionally illiterate”, compared to just 16 per cent in Germany.
Even these shock figures are reasonably generous compared to the internal figures of the German government, which were leaked at the end of 2015. The internal paper from the Federal Employment Agency suggested 81 per cent of migrants to Germany were unskilled, and just eight per cent had academic qualifications of any kind.
Projecting their own likely spending, the agency estimated the migrant influx would lead to Germany taking on hundreds of thousands of new benefit claimants."
bm0p700f":2v4sj97h said:
Come up with another policy.
Governments shouldn't be in the pension business. When they are, everyone imagines that the government will "take care of everything", individual 'pension pots' get merged into one giant communal bucket, the ponzi scheme begins and governments borrow money (which can never be repaid) to keep the system solvent.
In either Sweden or Holland (I forget which one), the government doesn't manage the public sector fund itself; big financial companies compete to manage the fund and the government caps the percentage of fees that the management company can take for itself. The percentage is only small, so most of the investment growth benefits the value of the fund -- but the fund is so colossal that even a tiny percentage makes good money for the company who manages it.
If workers were responsible for their *own* pensions or if companies were responsible for their workers' pensions, then (a) the number of pensions would match the number of workers, so no dependency ratio, and (b) fund managers would be much more accountable to the people who have entrusted their contributions to him/her.
However, this "cold light of day" approach might reveal (a) just how much money we all have to put into a pension to get a meaningful return, (b) how meagre the returns are on the fund manager's investments and (c) how much the fund managers take for themselves. So it all ends up being left with the government, as that's the best place to sweep it under the carpet.
technodup":2v4sj97h said:
Now whilst I believe our feckless and workshy should be forced into work before we import labour it also makes perfect sense to take who we need for the roles our plebs cannot do.
^ This. If 2 or 3 million immigrants can walk into this country and find a job, I find myself wondering why 1.8 million unemployed Brits can't.
bm0p700pf":2v4sj97h said:
The most important thing about change is it is always uncomfortable and no society is ever in control of it. Thd best you can do is mange the change to limit the impact like building more houses, spending more than 6.46% of GDP on the nhs (that's declining too it was around 9% in the labour years but some of that got wasted on pfi) e.t.c.
Our problems are home gorwn and not imported. We can fix them without withdrawing from the eu.
Sorry fella, this is what the BBC doesn't tell you: Gordon Brown couldn't use government money to finance Labour's promised NHS spending spree, because the European Union had put a cap on how much member states could borrow (At the time, countries like France and Greece took absolutely no notice of this cap and borrowed what the hell they wanted -- but that probably goes to show how bloody daft we Brits must be). Anyway, how does Gordon fulfil the manifesto pledges without borrowing more? Answer: Private Finance Initiatives. This, thinks Gordon, will take the borrowing off the government's books and put it onto the balance sheet of Carillion or Marillion or whoever made a fortune out of building hospitals and renting them out.
So it was the *EU* which forced Labour to resort to PFI.
But do you know what the punchline is? When the EU examined the whole sorry situation, they told the British government that it didn't matter that the debt was on the books of privately owned companies -- they were going to include it in the government borrowing figures anyway! Heh-hey! Bah-boom-pish!