State of the industry: a running thread

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Where’s the money gone / going

.....

That only leaves the manufacturers,

If it's manufactured abroad and imported, the homeland tax and duty man will have creamed off a bit. It is complex though with definitions related to raw material, unfinished goods or finished goods. Logistics companies if I remember right actually don't work for free. Safety certification, marketing, and R&D too adds on top of the Cost of Sales for a manufactured item.

Shame we don't have an industry inside accountant point of view to contribute and give a better answer to your good question. I would imagine it is still fairly slim what they pocket - 20% tops maybe?
 
I happened to walk past my lbs today.. I've used them in the past for bits and bobs and they are a decent bunch. They've always appreciated my retro steeds when I've taken them in. Bought kids bikes from them so I'm no tyre kicker.

I was amazed to see the price of the bikes they had in the window. One that stuck out was an alivio shod specialised. £1,100. Wtf? It was a shiny red, alu framed bike, not an engine I don't think, just a hybrid looking affair.

I was shocked. It's been a very long while since I've bought a new bike for myself, but having built (well still building) a thoroughly modern bike with a mix of new (frame, brakes, wheels and tubeless tanwalls, saddle, stem, all decent kit), and used ,(dvo demo forks, xtr 11x gearing, ethirteen carbon cranks, dropper, bars) and I'm in for less than the cost of the low rent spesh.

I love a good lbs, the advice, help and expertise is worth paying the premium for imho. Much prefer that then the digital, hands off experience. But if the rrp of bog standard bikes is so high, I fear for the industry. If distributers, big online retailers and the humble lbs can't make ends meet, what are we going to be left with? Cheap, Chinese tat? Thank goodness for retro bikes, they have soul, well made frames and lasting components (generalising) as opposed to the expensive, planned obsolescence of the modern day bikes and parts.
 
Ian I think that's one of the many problems going on.
Cyclist's know the difference between Alivio and XTR and during the covid frenzy lock down everyone on the furlough scheme spent their hard earned (Ahem) on bikes, on any bike, no matter how expensive it was.
All the cheap bottom end stuff out there is still sitting around as the furlough cyclist's are long gone.
 
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Chain has now very good discounts but only for UK. It has close for the rest of the world.
 
I’ve been following this thread off and on for ages now - and very grateful for it as I’ve had a gift voucher for £100 for Wiggle that I’ve done nothing with for 18 months
….Anyway seeing that it might be worthless piece of paper soon I bought some cycles shoes that I don’t actually need but will come in handy at somepoint.
… so thanks guys


Regarding this thread and for the casual observer can you answer this, as 39 pages in (for the uninitiated at least) I’m still none the wiser

If people assume the prices in the shops are grossly over inflated and there’s a realignment going on due to over supply

Where’s the money gone / going

If the independents can’t make even a modest margin - it’s not them

If the the large retailers are bankrupt it’s not them either

Importer are folding - which kinda rules them out

That only leaves the manufacturers,

Seriously - have we all been questioning the prices and assuming they are super inflated and a cash cow for shareholders somewhere in the food chain when in reality modern bikes genuinely do cost that much and people have simply just stopped buying ….and there simply never was any big cash reserves sloshing around to weather the storm ?


i’d be interesting to hear from Darren at Silverfish on what he thinks

Or for someone to review and summarise this thread (so far) and perhaps given what the facts tell us look at what 2024 holds


By the sound of things by the end of 2024 this industry is going to be very different

I made some similar points earlier. Someone has to be making serious bank somewhere as they can't all be poor. I suspect the answer is increasing financialisation across the entire sector eg bike shop owner can't make it work because of high rents etc to manufacturer struggling due to using accounting approaches which have come home to roost because of rise in interest rates and inflation. Shipping cost increases may be another factor as might be private equity loading previously viable companies up with loads of debt.

As an aside, here's Hambini's predictions:

 
I happened to walk past my lbs today.. I've used them in the past for bits and bobs and they are a decent bunch. They've always appreciated my retro steeds when I've taken them in. Bought kids bikes from them so I'm no tyre kicker.

I was amazed to see the price of the bikes they had in the window. One that stuck out was an alivio shod specialised. £1,100. Wtf? It was a shiny red, alu framed bike, not an engine I don't think, just a hybrid looking affair.

I was shocked. It's been a very long while since I've bought a new bike for myself, but having built (well still building) a thoroughly modern bike with a mix of new (frame, brakes, wheels and tubeless tanwalls, saddle, stem, all decent kit), and used ,(dvo demo forks, xtr 11x gearing, ethirteen carbon cranks, dropper, bars) and I'm in for less than the cost of the low rent spesh.

I love a good lbs, the advice, help and expertise is worth paying the premium for imho. Much prefer that then the digital, hands off experience. But if the rrp of bog standard bikes is so high, I fear for the industry. If distributers, big online retailers and the humble lbs can't make ends meet, what are we going to be left with? Cheap, Chinese tat? Thank goodness for retro bikes, they have soul, well made frames and lasting components (generalising) as opposed to the expensive, planned obsolescence of the modern day bikes and parts.
Yeah, Specialized (and others) have some horrific rrp’s. I was looking at a Chisel that had 50% off. The components were poor for a 1k bike, let alone 2k!
 
I was slightly wrong. It was I think a hybrid style ebike with deore gearing. Reduced to £1600 from £2600. Still like you've said, a lot of dough even after the discount as the bike isn't all that in terms of spec, OEM parts etc. Maybe I'm living in a different world but since the reduction in the number of rings up front, the costs of chainsets has gone up not down (less is more???) And the price of cassettes and chains the same. Even tyres have become madly expensive for what they are, a fork service costs nearly as much as a car service, a bleed of 2 brakes costs £100+ locally (thankfully I can do most things myself). It's a very expensive hobby where what you have now will be obsolete in a few years, rendering the value of what you own a lot less.

Retrobikes are the way :)
 
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