State of the industry: a running thread

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I think you'll see more of two things:

1. More PE invested or grouped portfolios where brands are owned by 1 entity. See Cervélo.
2. The existing "mega" corps will continue. Trek, Ritchey, Specialized, they are too big to crumble unless there's been some serious mismanagement we're not aware of.

History shows examples of crumbling and disappearing companies because they are too big and have lacked agility, product rationalisation and innovation. Shimano will probably get hit bad. I've just counted they offer 18 groupsets - excluding hub gear and electric stuff, then add all the usual flat bar options to some of the road stuff there's probably going to be tonnes of inventory on the market for years to come.
 
History shows examples of crumbling and disappearing companies because they are too big and have lacked agility, product rationalisation and innovation. Shimano will probably get hit bad. I've just counted they offer 18 groupsets - excluding hub gear and electric stuff, then add all the usual flat bar options to some of the road stuff there's probably going to be tonnes of inventory on the market for years to come.
They are already moving to refine that a bit with Cues though right?
 
They are already moving to refine that a bit with Cues though right?

Indeed. The mid range level between road, trekking and MTB should be blurred too, once and for all to a fairly universel gruppo to cater for the vast majority regardless of handlebar shape and wheel size and tyre tread IMHO.

If it's not for competition, don't specialise, and Shimano love to split hairs over frankly BS stuff like the inner plate of 105 or LX RD Parallelogram is pressed steel and the bearing race is not grounded like Ultegra and XT. They've had this BS milked for years upon years. I like the Japan industry as whole, but they must get a grip again on redefining and consolidating the low end and even the mid end. Let China copy the w~ank end of the spectrum and move forward towards quality.

Campagnolo being more niche, and I guess have a few wild cards, may actually do good.

Niche and luxury products always do well and survive a downturn, but it's not handed on a silver plate either.

 
@klunkrider Cues does look like it will help, but not yet, as i understand it, it runs an 11 speed chain, which suggests 11 speed spacing regarless of 9, 10 or 11 speed being used, there are many price point options on the chainsets along with many 1x and 2x options, currently the gear shifters are specific to flat/riser bars and i am lead to believe it has it's own cable pull ratio, although i have heard that a deore m5100 11speed shifter works with the 11 speed option, currently there are no drop bar shifters that are compatible with it but apparently that is the plan. the whole idea is to make the cable ratio the same reagrdless of how many gears you have so all the rear mechs for example should work on 9,10 or 11 speed set ups and the chains and cassettes should also be compatible.

i looked at using some on a build in the last few days, i'm trying to work out if a sora/tiagra or 105 lever may work, as i'm in the process of building a road/touring style bike, will ask Madison tomorrow but i have been told they may not know themselves!

i wish they'd keep as simple as this, all 8 speed works together, regardless of road/mtb/hybrid, same with 9, 10, 11 and 12, imagine how nice it would be to decide how many gears you want then just pick the mix of mtb/road parts that work for you and know because you have bought all 10 speed it'll work, so a tiagra shifter with an xt long cage mech to get a wide ratio etc, seems pretty straight forward to me.
 
@jonnyboy666 - always love your posts. I think Shimano have a got to get to grip, and they have to swallow a hard pill (which they have had to do before, so I do admire them for doing serious U-turns in the past), and accept the market is volatile and if you need some bread-n-butter make a solid universal mid-end gruppo make a very very suitable consumer offering that does the trick and ticks all boxes to the dwindling new sales and potentially extends into the upgrade market and be quick about it.
 
@Woz well i look at things logically, shimano i think do get a lot of stuff right, messing about with cable pull as much as they have seems to be an odd thing to do, tiagra 10 speed for example the front shift had it's own cable pull ratio, nothing else they have worked road shifter wise, i think it is the same as 2x10 GRX400 though but that is it, why do that? i think with cues they are trying to rectify the compatibility issues of the last 15 years, but currently cues is a bit pointless, i've not seen any of it on a bike or in my shop etc, have only seen it at a trade show last march. if it does what it promises then great but right now it looks like a BB or headset or hub standard . . . the emperors new clothes, another option with no upsides.
 
These companies don't do themselves any favours through trying to establish lock-in and built-in obsolescence - especially when disguised as innovation. Agreed on the need for a mid-level groupset - and I'd go further and speed up the move to electronic (and able to be configured for any speed set up manually regardless of brand, but just work on a number of standard configurations eg 10, 11, 12 spd of the last x years for your own brand). This would massively reduce setup and maintenance costs - plus mean that after a few years that anyone could mix and match unsold inventory wherever it is in the system whether retailer or manufacturer, and cyclists have an upgrade path to shinier stuff if they wanted. Want to pair the latest dura-ace with 4 year old deore?Sure no problem. Imagine rocking up to your local bike shop with a broken mech, and being able to take whatever they have - SRAM, Shimano, Microshift etc - bolt it on, and with 5 mins work in the app configure and be ready to go again.
 
History shows examples of crumbling and disappearing companies because they are too big and have lacked agility, product rationalisation and innovation. Shimano will probably get hit bad. I've just counted they offer 18 groupsets - excluding hub gear and electric stuff, then add all the usual flat bar options to some of the road stuff there's probably going to be tonnes of inventory on the market for years to come.

True. The shrinking market coupled with well raised points about multiple standards will inevitably result in more streamlining. I still think the biggest brands, those I mentioned, are relatively safe for the time being. That's doesn't mean they aren't finding it tough.
 
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